The HEE south west transformation team commissioned the development of a scenario planning project, with The Staff College, to create a tool that looks 15 years forward in time.
The tool is designed to stimulate thinking and provoke debate about systems as a whole, the systems we want and those that we need to avoid. Each presents a very different picture of what healthcare may look like, based on the development of different trends and drivers of change.
Key priorities were highlighted by stakeholders across the south west, and information was pulled in from external factors. Four hard-hitting, divergent scenarios emerged from this work and from the tool:
These scenarios are not predictions, but plausible interpretations of the future based on current drivers of change. You can read more about the scenarios and how the tool can be used here.
With expert support from the HEE Transformation team, led by Claudia Trick, (Associate Workforce Transformation Lead), and The Staff College, the tool has been used at Integrated Care System (ICS) level in Bath and North East Somerset, Swindon and Wiltshire (BSW), and Devon, to support their integrated workforce strategy developments.
The tool has also proved successful with professional groups. Allied Health Professions in BSW ICS, and the regional Podiatry Workforce Action Group, have used the scenarios in practical ways to understand their long-term workforce planning needs, for recruitment and retention, as well as short-term service improvement and innovation.